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Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Elections 2014: How BJP gained from a Modi-centric campaign

As it goes to the seventh phase of polls, the BJP issued a statement captioned, "Largest Mass Outreach Campaign in Electoral History of a Democracy", crediting Narendra Modi for addressing an unprecedented 5827 public rallies, programmes, events, 3D rallies and Chai pe charcha.


by Sanjay Singh 30 Apr 20:03 pm IST

As it goes to the seventh phase of polls, the BJP issued a statement captioned, "Largest Mass Outreach Campaign in Electoral History of a Democracy", crediting Narendra Modi for addressing an unprecedented 5827 public rallies, programmes, events, 3D rallies and Chai pe charcha. The six page statement is designed to convey the level of energy and stamina that Modi has displayed since he was declared BJP's prime ministerial candidate in September last year. Party spokesman Meenakshi Lekhi enthusiastically claimed, "It would not be an exaggeration to describe the Modi campaign as one of the biggest mass mobilisation exercise seen anywhere in the history of electioneering. The scale and intensity of the campaign becomes even bigger when one understands the large population and geographic spread of India. Yes, in the past political leaders have led marathon campaigns but the scale at which this campaign has been done beats them all by miles".


A BJP flag. AFP.

A BJP flag. AFP.



She then cites some statistics, starting from 15th September 2013, when Modi addressed his first rally after being anointed as the BJP's PM candidate till 10th May 2014 when campaigning for the last phase of 2014 Lok Sabha Elections ends. The Gujarat CM has addressed 437 rallies across India from Jammu to Kanyakumari, from Amreli to Arunachal Pradesh. From 15th March to 10th May he has travelled almost 3 lakh kilometres.

More than the miles covered and number of rallies addressed, however, the statement is more of a mid-course reaffirmation of Modi's singular leadership. The statement does not mention a single name other than Modi. The message is loud and clear, there can't be a Plan B or Plan C, there is only Plan M. "Can you recall such a wide and diverse outreach programme in India's history? His day began at 5 AM and sometimes went past midnight but Narendra Modi's energy and his dedication only increases," the statement declares.

The only-Modi message is also being driven home by his ramped up attacks on regional satraps like Mamta Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Navin Patnaik, Farooq Abdullah and Jayalalitha, some of whom are potential post poll allies. But it is part of a well thought out strategy on part of Modi's core team. Take Modi's personal tirade against Mamata durig his last two outings in Bengal, which offers a dramatic contrast to his initial overtures when he expressed appreciation for her work in Bengal and lauded her guts. But as the electioneering gained momentum, the BJP started getting feedback that Modi was gaining surprise traction among Bengali middle class and even in rural areas.

Second, it became clearer to the BJP leadership that Mamata is not inclined to join the BJP in the post poll scenario due to Muslim vote considerations. Rising support for Modi on the ground is eating into voting blocs of all the parties in contention in Bengal, including Congress, Trinamool and Left. The BJP is now confident of taking over Congress's number three position in the state. "We could not have hoped to be in contention and raise percentage of polling in our favour, if we had not punched holes in Mamata's politics and governance," a BJP leader said. Farooq Abdullah's National Conference is another party which is on BJP's hit list.

An angry rebuttal by Modi to Farooq's secularist challenge was addressing not just BJP's core supporters but reaching out to other voting blocs to whom Kashmir remains a key issue. The political nuances of trading of charges and counter charges between Modi and Sharad Pawar is different what is seen in case of Mamata and Farooq Abdullah. There were indeed some friendly overtures between Modi and Pawar. There was also some early talk of whether NCP could be part of the NDA. Even as Shiv Sena openly resisted that move, there was a realisation in the BJP camp that an alliance with NCP in these elections would not yield any harvest, but could instead be counter productive. It was at this stage that Modi started attacking Pawar in his rallies and the NCP chief returned the favour.


Narendra Modi. Reuters.

Narendra Modi. Reuters.

or for that matter the DMK, the BJP leaders hope to to reach a post poll understanding, and if they make a good show, they could bargain with some degree of confidence and strength.

The fact that the BJP has been able to stitch up an alliance in Tamil Nadu and make the elections triangular for the first time is a big achievement. More so, as the Congress could this time around could not find an ally in the state. In Tamil Nadu the BJP hopes to gain eight seats, seven in Odisha and six in West Bengal. It sounds somewhat unrealistic but that's the kind of buoyancy which is keeping the workers spirits high.

A BJP leader engaged in keeping a tab on voting pattern says, "Modi-for-PM has worked for us. We have made inroads and will win decent number of seats in states where our presence was negligible. Nobody would have thought of it when Modi began his campaign. There are vast number of voters who in states like West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Assam, Haryana want to see Modi as PM and are voting accordingly. How they will vote in assembly elections could be a different matter. But that is not an issue now." In seventh phase of polling, being done today, the BJP would be hoping for a clean sweep in Gujarat. It will also hope to hold the flag high in UP, Bihar and Telangana. However, Punjab where Arun Jaitley is locked in a keen contest with Captain Amrinder is being treated as the only "aberration" in a buoyant Modi wave.

Source: http://m.firstpost.com/politics/elections-2014-how-bjp-gained-frommodi-centric-campaign-1502729.html?page=1

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