North India

April 7^th would witness the beginning of most important general elections in the History of Independent India. Much is at stake for every individual. After our near to 100% accurate predictions in the last year’s Assembly elections of 4 states, we are back with our Final Poll and findings before the elections to give the readers an overview of standings of various parties, arithmetic at work and analysis.

IBTL Polls of December 2013 and Jan-Feb 2014 have in depth analysis for each state; hence this edition would mainly focus on numbers prediction and brief analysis of key High Profile seats. We start the projections with North India, move towards the Eastern quarter, move down South and complete the circle with the Western India.

In the North, we have the all important state of Uttar Pradesh, which as many say, is the road to Delhi. Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, the hill states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, National Capital Delhi and the Union Territory of Chandigarh would be a part of this prediction

Statewise Seats Prediction for North India

J&K – BJP 2 (+2) NC 1 (-2) PDP 2 (+2) Congress 0 (-2) Others 1 (0)
Himachal Pradesh – BJP 3 (0) Congress 1 (0)
Punjab – Congress 5 (-3) BJP 2 (+1) SAD 6 (+2)
Chandigarh – AAP 1 (+1) BJP 0 (0) Congress 0 (-1)
Haryana – INC 3 (-6) BJP 3 (+3) INLD 3 (+3) HJC 1 (0) AAP 0
Delhi – INC 0 (-7) BJP 7 (+7) AAP 0 (0)
Uttarakhand – Congress 0 (-5) BJP 5 (+5)
UP – BJP 57 (+47), BSP 10 (-10), SP 8 (-15), Congress 4 (-17), RLD 1 (-4)


Key Findings from North India

1. Post Candidate selection, BJP seems to have lost the momentum and is expected to win 3 seats (compared to 6 predicted in March) while INLD is gaining grounds
    
2. Entry of AAP is also a gamechanger as AAP is damaging BJP more than the Congress against the popular perception of AAP denting Dalit votes.
    
3. In Delhi, AAP is facing heavy resentment and the party may lose all of its 7 seats including Chandni Chowk
    
4. BJP expected to do well in Hill states of HP and Uttarakahnd
    
5. The biggest boost for BJP would come from Uttar Pradesh where the saffron party is tearing into its rivals, winning a thumping 57 seats, bettering its previous best performance of 1998
    
6. Non UPA and Non NDA parties have little to rejoice in the Northern part of the country

High Profile Seat – Varanasi
Year 2004 –

Total Voters 14.87 Lakhs, Votes polled ~6.33 Lakhs (Voter Turnout - 43%)
Congress got around 2.07 Lakh votes, BJP around 1.49 Lakh votes, BSP and SP about 0.59 Lakh votes each. Apna Dal go about 0.97 Lakh votes and remaining 0.60 Lakh votes to others.
Result Congress WON

Year 2009 –
Total Voters 15.62 Lakhs, Votes polled ~6.65 Lakhs (Voter Turnout - 43%)
Congress got ~0.65 Lakh votes, BJP ~2.03 Lakh votes, BSP got ~1.86 Lakh votes (fielded Apna Dal candidate Mukhtar Ansari) and SP ~ 1.23 Lakh votes and remaining 0.87 Lakh votes to others.
Result - BJP WON

Year 2012 –
(Uttar Pradesh assembly extrapolated to Lok Sabha seat): 17.18 Lakhs, Votes polled 8.82 Lakhs (Voter Turnout - 51%)

Congress got ~1.62 Lakh votes, BJP ~1.92 Lakh Votes, BSP ~ 1.49 Lakh votes & SP ~ 1.73 Lakh votes, Others (include Apna Dal) ~2.06 Lakh votes

BJP won 3 assembly seats in Varanasi, Apna Dal won 1 seat Rohaniya and SP won seats of Sevapuri segments.

So, going by any stretch of imagination... Media/Congress/AAP campaign that this is safe seat of BJP is untrue.

BJP voting percentage has fallen from ~31% in 2009 to ~22% in 2012 elections.
We did survey 1200 people in Varanasi (which is a robust sample size for a lone constituency) and weighted the respondents’ profile to match that of Constituency Demographics and here are the results.

# With high profile battle and increased awareness, the voter turnout is expected to be ~70%
# Overall out of 18 lakh expected voters12.6 lakhs would cast their votes
# We asked the respondents in a 6 way fight between BJP, BSP, SP, Congress, AAP and Quami Ekta

Dal in the race with BJP fielding Modi, AAP fielding Kejriwal, and QED fielding Ansari and the results were

1. 57% preferred Modi in a 6 way fight, 16% Ansari, 6% Congress, 4% SP, 3% BSP and 2% Kejriwal, Remaining 12% for other candidates
    
2. This would result in Modi getting around 7 lakh votes and winning by a margin of over 5 lakh votes
    
3. Despite all the drumbeating, Arvind kejriwal would get merely 25000 or 2% of the votes and end of forfeiting his deposit and possibly be placed in 6th or 7th place

# In a situation if Opposition fielded a join candidate probably Kejriwal, 60% respondents said they would choose Modi, while 30% said they would choose Kejriwal

1. This would lead to intense Polarization of the said seat and Kejriwal would score high with the help of SP, BSP, Congress and QED votes
    
2. Some traditional voters would also vote for Modi getting over 7.5 lakh votes while kejriwal getting over 3.5 lakh votes.
    
3. In such a situation Modi’s victory margin will come down to 3 lakh range

East India

The Sun may rise in the east but the same cannot be said about BJP’s Sun over the years. The party has struggled to make a mark in Eastern parts of the country. The National party has thrived on alliances in Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam to win a few seats and has been virtually non-existent in the North East. Even when Ram Janm Bhoomi movement engulfed the Hindi Belt, Bihar was left unaffected. In fact Atal Bihari Vajpayee could not become the PM because BJP-Samta alliance did not do as well as expected in Bihar and the 20 seats difference proved to be the difference between a stable govt and an unstable govt. BJP won 161 seats in 1996 and failed to form govt. while it won 182 and formed a stable govt. 3 years later.

Enter 2014; the situation is not much different. BJP is weak in these states and not only this, the party has failed to cobble up effective alliances in West Bengal and Orissa, where it won 10 seats in 1999. However what makes East India important for the BJP is the state of Undivided Bihar (Bihar+Jharkhand) where the party has become stronger than ever before. Also with scattered performance in the past, 2014 holds a little promise for BJP.

If East India is not so much of good news for the BJP, it is a bigger disaster for the Congress, for it is the regional parties which call the shots in these regions. This part of the analysis focuses on Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Assam, 7 Sister North Eastern States and Orissa

Statewise Seats Prediction for East India
Bihar – BJP 26 (+14) LJP 4 (+4) RJD 6 (+2) Congress 0 (-2) JDU 4 (-16)
Jharkhand – BJP 10 (+2) Congress 0 (-1) JVM 2 (+1) JMM 1 (-2), Ind 1 (-1)
West Bengal – TMC 26 (+7) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 1 (0) Left Front 12 (-3)
Assam – AIUDF 2 (+1) BJP 6 (+2) Congress 6 (-1)
Arunachal Pradesh – Congress 0 (-2) BJP 2 (+2)
Meghalaya – Congress 1 (0) NPP 1 (+1)
Manipur – Congress 1 (-1) BJP 1 (+1)
Tripura – Left Front 2 (0)
Nagaland – NPF 1 (0)
Sikkim – SDF 1 (0)
Mizoram – Congress 1 (0)
Orissa – BJD 16 (+2) Congress 3 (-3) BJP 2 (+2)

Partywise Summary for East India





Key Findings from East India
# In Bihar, the Modi wave has virtually changed into a Modi Tsunami with the NDA sweeping almost 3/4^th of the seats out of 40

# In Jharkhand, BJP gains moderately in seat share by winning 2 more seats. Congress is expected to draw a blank in both Bihar and Jharkhand

# In West Bengal, Mamta Bannerjee is replacing Left Front. Mamta would win half of the seats easily and in the remaining 21, battle is between Left, TMC, Congress and also the BJP in half a dozen seats

# For the 1^st time, BJP along with its allies is challenging the Congress in the North Eastern states

# Even in the Left bastion of Tripura, Congress sweats to retain the 2^nd position as BJP is turning the heat on

# In Orissa, Congress which was projected to do well earlier by IBTL, also seems to lose like elsewhere

# In all these states Modi factor was visible with the BJP’s PM candidate swinging crucial votes on his own (2% in Bengal to 15% in Bihar)

High Profile Seat – Patliputra

An otherwise normal seat, Patliputra came into limelight because of the cold war between Laloo’s trusted aide Ramkripal Yadav and Laloo Yadav’s daughter Misa Bharti. The seat was also in controversy with Baba Ramdev pitching in his mentee, Nawal Kishore Yadav, former RJD MLC to get a BJP ticket

There is a History to this seat of Patna. In 2009, Laloo Yadav chose this seat out of fear of being defeated at his original seat Chhapra (falling in Saran after delimitation). However Laloo ended up losing Patliputra and winning Saran. The LS seat Patliputra itself was carved out of Patna in 2009.
Year 2004, Ramkripal Yadav won this seat on an RJD ticket, defeating CP Thakur of BJP in a fierce fight. CP Thakur had won the seat in 1999.

Year 2009, RJD supremo Laloo Yadav himself fought the seat after delimitation but lost narrowly to Ranjan Yadav of JDU. Ranjan Yadav was also supported by BJP as it was a part of NDA then.
In this Yadavs dominated seat, there are already 3 strong Yadav candidates and the entry of Independent candidate Nawal Kishore Yadav (if he chooses to fight on Independent ticket) would make the battle even more interesting. A 5^th Yadav, Reet Lal Yadav, an influential strongman and a dreaded gangster from Patna was about to file his nomination but Laloo had to literally placate Reet Lal and persuade him to step down. This would both have positive as well as negative implications for him.

Demography – Yadavs 5 Lakhs, Bhumihars 3 lakhs, Maha Dalits 2 lakhs, Paswan 1 Lakhs, OBCs and EBCs 2 lakhs, Muslims 1.25 lakhs, Other Forward Castes and Remaning 2.25 lakhs.
Total – 16.5 lakhs

In this Yadav dominated seat, it is actually the Bhumihars who hold the key who form almost 20% of the Voter base. Since the 2 predominant candidates are Yadavs, an even split is expected. However the key to the victory lies with BJP’s influential Thakur leader CP Thakur. Thakur has won this seat many times earlier. He may be the X factor that BJP needs to win this seat. No surprise that Ram Kripal Yadav met Thakur soon after filing nomination and sought his blessings.

Although Ranjan Yadav of the JDU is the sitting MP, not all the Yadavs seem to recognize him. Laloo Yadav remains the most popular Yadav leader in the seat. Almost 50% of Yadav voters preferred RJD, 25% chose BJP and merely 10% preferred JDU.

# Among Bhumihars, almost half were undecided and among the remaining it was a tough split with 40% choosing BJP, 28% choosing RJD and 21% choosing JDU

# Among Dalit Paswans, 70% preferred BJP while 47% Maha Dalits preferred the JDU

# 38% Muslims chose RJD, while 32% preferred JDU

# Among the forward caste voters, BJP was the top choice with as high as 69% choosing the saffron party

# The OBCs chose to flock behind BJP

# Misa Bharti of the RJD was top choice among women voters with 39% choosing her

Overall the battle for Patliputra would be as close as possible. Misa Bharti maybe new but her political acumen is sharp and can be ascertained by the way she made her entry displacing her ‘uncle’ Ram Kripal Yadav. Ram Kripal on the other hand depends on BJP votebank whereas incumbent JDU MP, Ranjan Yadav, who much to our surprise is more of a undergog than a frontrunner this time, will depend on Maha Dalits and other EBCs for victory.

The battle would be interesting. Our projections predict a narrow victory for BJP candidate Ram Kripal Yadav over Misa Bharti of RJD. Ranjan Yadav is trailing behind these 2. There is still time and the tables can turn. Entry of new candidate, Baba Ramdev’s mentee Nawal Kishore Yadav may change fortunes of the candidate sin this close battle.

to be continued ...


Source: http://www.ibtl.in/news/exclusive/2128/ibtl-public-opinion-poll-2014