Modi is the favourite in the Tamil rural heartland too

    Sunday, 26 January 2014 21:00
    Macherla Diwakar
    136 Comments


Thanjavur district is the home of the Cauvery delta region and is the rice-bowl of Tamil Nadu. The river and the fertile fields nourished Carnatic music, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, when the celebrated trinity of Saint Thyagaraja (1767-1847) and his contemporaries, Muthuswami Dikshitar and Shyama Sastri, held sway.

Those were the days when civilization was river-based. Things have changed since, and, today, Chennai is the Mecca of Carnatic music. The district, more particularly, Tiruvaiyaru, 15 kms from Thanjavur city, still reverberates with the sounds of Carnatic music for five days in a year, when it hosts the internationally-famous Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana, to commemorate the death anniversary of Saint Thyagaraja.

The Saint passed away 167 years ago, on Pushya Bahula Panchami. Pushya is the name of the month in the lunar calendar. Bahula is the dark or the second fortnight, while Panchami is the fifth day of the waning moon, according to the Hindu almanac. Translated into the Gregorian calendar, which we follow now, the Aradhana date varies from year to year, though not the month.

I was in Tiruvaiyaru for the Aradhana—as I have been doing for the last decade or so—this time from 17th to 22nd January. I mostly attend the evening concerts, which leaves me free time in the mornings. Thanjavur district is also famous for its temples, with Kumbakonam being the hub for most of the famous Shaiva and Vaishnava shrines, besides those dedicated to the Navagrahas, the nine planets. I, therefore, took the opportunity on one of the days to visit a few temples.

The region is also the strong-hold of the Moopanars, the land-owning caste. The late G.K. Moopanar was the most famous among them. Traditionally Congress, the Moopanars are proud of Mr. Moopanar and equally so about his son, Mr. G.K. Vasan, a union minister now. In fact, the family is well-known for its public service and is the main patron of Sri Thiyagabrahma Mahotsava Sabha, the body that organizes Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana. Mr. Moopanar was its president until his death, and the post is now held by his brother, Mr. G.R. Moopanar.

Our cab driver too was a Moopanar, without much land, though. “My grandfather squandered the 32 acres that we once owned,” he confessed. Our driver was a talkative man: so am I.  Would he vote for the Congress, I asked. “No way. Modi,” he replied. It was his opinion, I opined. It is the opinion of most people here, he countered. “Jayalalithaa wants her partymen to ensure that the AIADMK won all the 39 seats to the Lok Sabha,” I reminded him. “This is not an assembly election,” he responded. “It is for the prime minister and we want Modi as pm. Did you see the crowds at Modi’s Tiruchi rally? My car couldn’t enter the city that day.”  He could be right. An opinion poll conducted by Junior Vikatan, a political journal belonging to the Vikatan group, published a survey which showed that about forty per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Modi.

According to the survey, the AIADMK could get thirty percent, the DMK and the others the remaining thirty per cent. Another poll has put the BJP vote at a modest 17 per cent. The BJP is trying to woo the DMDK of Vijayakant to cobble together a non-AIADMK, non-DMK third front. The DMDK is being wooed by the DMK too, but the party’s vote has shrunk badly and only three per cent are inclined to vote for it, according to pollsters.

Back in my hotel, I asked the room boy whom he would vote for. DMK, he replied. But wasn’t this an election for parliament, I asked him. “Yes, but my family always votes for the DMK,” he replied. As his reply shows, the traditional DMK base is intact. Amma, despite her perceived regard for Mr. Narendra Modi, at present thinks that her party, in alliance with the two Communist parties, can sweep the polls. This is where she could trip.

The Communist parties are a spent force. Their traditional base, the unionized workforce, is shrinking. Most of the working class is either non-union or on contract. Nobody knows the real strength of the Communists. This is because they are past-masters in the art of political opportunism. In Tamil Nadu, after MGR’s demise, they know that the ruling party is shown the door every five years. So, every five years, they join hands with the opposition, bargain for a few seats and win. At the end of the five years, they gravitate towards the opposition. Left to themselves, they would find it difficult to retain their deposits.

The BJP, bereft of the support of the two Kazhagams, has been plowing a lone furrow for the past ten years. Most, if not all, of the BJP supporters, I know, vote for the AIADMK in the assembly elections to keep the DMK out. The DMK is perceived to be anti-Hindu. This election could be different, though. Many Tamils, like my cab driver—like people elsewhere in India—have realized that they are going to vote for a prime minister and are planning to vote accordingly. India has, in the personality of Mr. Modi, perhaps for the first time since Indira Gandhi, a leader with a pan-Indian appeal. This, I feel, could be detrimental to the regional parties.

If Ms. Jayalalithaa sees the writing on the wall and goes for a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, she can sweep the elections. On the other hand, if she feels that the minorities would not vote for the combine and sticks to the Communists, she would be hard-pressed to win half of the 39 seats from TN. Here too, the minority card, like in most states, is over-played. It was only the Hindu vote which enabled her to win big in the 2011 assembly polls. The minorities tend to trust the Congress and the DMK more. Despite being drubbed elsewhere in the state, the Congress and the DMK did well in the Christian-dominated Kanniyakumari district in 2011.

This time around, with Modi leading the charge, it would be the BJP’s turn to eat into the AIADMK vote, for, as I said, the DMK vote-share might not go up, but its base is intact. On its own, the BJP may not win many seats, but it can spoil the chances of the AIADMK.

The Modi factor can change the arithmetic in the entire south. In Karnataka, a powerful Modi campaign can bring in handsome dividends, for the people know that this is an election to select the country’s prime minister. Andhra Pradesh is perhaps the only state in the country where the Congress has successfully diverted the attention from poor governance to separate statehood for Telengana. However, it is unlikely to reap any dividends in the Telengana region, while drawing a blank in the SeemaAndhra region, where the YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy is expected to do well. The Congress got him released from prison, hoping that he would help them, but the YSR Congress, a family-run party, is aware that the Congress would be decimated at the national level. The BJP can perform better in AP, if it responds to the overtures of the Telugu Desam.

Kerala is the odd man out in the southern region. Dr. Amartya Sen’s favourite state has no industries, no jobs and its forest cover is being steadily eroded by settlers from the plains. It survives on remittances from abroad and from the rest of India. Still, the Congress-led ruling alliance is expected to do well. Television arm-chair pundits pretend not to know the reason. The answer is simple: Christians vote for the Congress and their own Kerala Congress, while the Muslims vote for the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Christians and Muslims, together, constitute about 45 per cent of the population. The Hindu vote traditionally goes to the CPI (M). The CPI (M) comes to power on the Hindu vote and spends the next five years giving sops to the minorities to woo them. The BJP growth in Kerala can, therefore, be only at the expense of the Left Front. Opinion polls clearly show this. While in 2013, it was expected that the Left Front would garner a majority of the twenty seats from the state, latest polls show that the Left Front is trailing the Congress-led Front. Good for the BJP in the long run. Once in power at the centre, the party should infuse fresh blood and nurture young talent to enable the party to grow in the state.



http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/modi-favourite-tamil-rural-heartland-100024490.html#sthash.yQleLKs6.uP14VlHZ.dpuf

• Sunday, 26 January 2014 21:00
• Macherla Diwakar
• 136 Comments

 363 Google +25  448

Thanjavur district is the home of the Cauvery delta region and is the rice-bowl of Tamil Nadu. The river and the fertile fields nourished Carnatic music, particularly in the 18^th and 19^th centuries, when the celebrated trinity of Saint Thyagaraja (1767-1847) and his contemporaries, Muthuswami Dikshitar and Shyama Sastri, held sway.
Those were the days when civilization was river-based. Things have changed since, and, today, Chennai is the Mecca of Carnatic music. The district, more particularly, Tiruvaiyaru, 15 kms from Thanjavur city, still reverberates with the sounds of Carnatic music for five days in a year, when it hosts the internationally-famous Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana, to commemorate the death anniversary of Saint Thyagaraja.
The Saint passed away 167 years ago, on Pushya Bahula Panchami. Pushya is the name of the month in the lunar calendar. Bahula is the dark or the second fortnight, while Panchami is the fifth day of the waning moon, according to the Hindu almanac. Translated into the Gregorian calendar, which we follow now, the Aradhana date varies from year to year, though not the month.
I was in Tiruvaiyaru for the Aradhana—as I have been doing for the last decade or so—this time from 17^th to 22^nd January. I mostly attend the evening concerts, which leaves me free time in the mornings. Thanjavur district is also famous for its temples, with Kumbakonam being the hub for most of the famous Shaiva and Vaishnava shrines, besides those dedicated to the Navagrahas, the nine planets. I, therefore, took the opportunity on one of the days to visit a few temples.
The region is also the strong-hold of the Moopanars, the land-owning caste. The late G.K. Moopanar was the most famous among them. Traditionally Congress, the Moopanars are proud of Mr. Moopanar and equally so about his son, Mr. G.K. Vasan, a union minister now. In fact, the family is well-known for its public service and is the main patron of Sri Thiyagabrahma Mahotsava Sabha, the body that organizes Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana. Mr. Moopanar was its president until his death, and the post is now held by his brother, Mr. G.R. Moopanar.
Our cab driver too was a Moopanar, without much land, though. “My grandfather squandered the 32 acres that we once owned,” he confessed. Our driver was a talkative man: so am I.  Would he vote for the Congress, I asked. “No way. Modi,” he replied. It was his opinion, I opined. It is the opinion of most people here, he countered. “Jayalalithaa wants her partymen to ensure that the AIADMK won all the 39 seats to the Lok Sabha,” I reminded him. “This is not an assembly election,” he responded. “It is for the prime minister and we want Modi as pm. Did you see the crowds at Modi’s Tiruchi rally? My car couldn’t enter the city that day.”  He could be right. An opinion poll conducted by Junior Vikatan, a political journal belonging to the Vikatan group, published a survey which showed that about forty per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Modi.
According to the survey, the AIADMK could get thirty percent, the DMK and the others the remaining thirty per cent. Another poll has put the BJP vote at a modest 17 per cent. The BJP is trying to woo the DMDK of Vijayakant to cobble together a non-AIADMK, non-DMK third front. The DMDK is being wooed by the DMK too, but the party’s vote has shrunk badly and only three per cent are inclined to vote for it, according to pollsters.
Back in my hotel, I asked the room boy whom he would vote for. DMK, he replied. But wasn’t this an election for parliament, I asked him. “Yes, but my family always votes for the DMK,” he replied. As his reply shows, the traditional DMK base is intact. Amma, despite her perceived regard for Mr. Narendra Modi, at present thinks that her party, in alliance with the two Communist parties, can sweep the polls. This is where she could trip.
The Communist parties are a spent force. Their traditional base, the unionized workforce, is shrinking. Most of the working class is either non-union or on contract. Nobody knows the real strength of the Communists. This is because they are past-masters in the art of political opportunism. In Tamil Nadu, after MGR’s demise, they know that the ruling party is shown the door every five years. So, every five years, they join hands with the opposition, bargain for a few seats and win. At the end of the five years, they gravitate towards the opposition. Left to themselves, they would find it difficult to retain their deposits.
The BJP, bereft of the support of the two Kazhagams, has been plowing a lone furrow for the past ten years. Most, if not all, of the BJP supporters, I know, vote for the AIADMK in the assembly elections to keep the DMK out. The DMK is perceived to be anti-Hindu. This election could be different, though. Many Tamils, like my cab driver—like people elsewhere in India—have realized that they are going to vote for a prime minister and are planning to vote accordingly. India has, in the personality of Mr. Modi, perhaps for the first time since Indira Gandhi, a leader with a pan-Indian appeal. This, I feel, could be detrimental to the regional parties.
If Ms. Jayalalithaa sees the writing on the wall and goes for a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, she can sweep the elections. On the other hand, if she feels that the minorities would not vote for the combine and sticks to the Communists, she would be hard-pressed to win half of the 39 seats from TN. Here too, the minority card, like in most states, is over-played. It was only the Hindu vote which enabled her to win big in the 2011 assembly polls. The minorities tend to trust the Congress and the DMK more. Despite being drubbed elsewhere in the state, the Congress and the DMK did well in the Christian-dominated Kanniyakumari district in 2011.
This time around, with Modi leading the charge, it would be the BJP’s turn to eat into the AIADMK vote, for, as I said, the DMK vote-share might not go up, but its base is intact. On its own, the BJP may not win many seats, but it can spoil the chances of the AIADMK.
The Modi factor can change the arithmetic in the entire south. In Karnataka, a powerful Modi campaign can bring in handsome dividends, for the people know that this is an election to select the country’s prime minister. Andhra Pradesh is perhaps the only state in the country where the Congress has successfully diverted the attention from poor governance to separate statehood for Telengana. However, it is unlikely to reap any dividends in the Telengana region, while drawing a blank in the SeemaAndhra region, where the YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy is expected to do well. The Congress got him released from prison, hoping that he would help them, but the YSR Congress, a family-run party, is aware that the Congress would be decimated at the national level. The BJP can perform better in AP, if it responds to the overtures of the Telugu Desam.
Kerala is the odd man out in the southern region. Dr. Amartya Sen’s favourite state has no industries, no jobs and its forest cover is being steadily eroded by settlers from the plains. It survives on remittances from abroad and from the rest of India. Still, the Congress-led ruling alliance is expected to do well. Television arm-chair pundits pretend not to know the reason. The answer is simple: Christians vote for the Congress and their own Kerala Congress, while the Muslims vote for the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Christians and Muslims, together, constitute about 45 per cent of the population. The Hindu vote traditionally goes to the CPI (M). The CPI (M) comes to power on the Hindu vote and spends the next five years giving sops to the minorities to woo them. The BJP growth in Kerala can, therefore, be only at the expense of the Left Front. Opinion polls clearly show this. While in 2013, it was expected that the Left Front would garner a majority of the twenty seats from the state, latest polls show that the Left Front is trailing the Congress-led Front. Good for the BJP in the long run. Once in power at the centre, the party should infuse fresh blood and nurture young talent to enable the party to grow in the state.

- See more at: http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/modi-favourite-tamil-rural-heartland-100024490.html#sthash.yQleLKs6.uP14VlHZ.dpuf

• Sunday, 26 January 2014 21:00
• Macherla Diwakar
• 136 Comments

 363 Google +25  448

Thanjavur district is the home of the Cauvery delta region and is the rice-bowl of Tamil Nadu. The river and the fertile fields nourished Carnatic music, particularly in the 18^th and 19^th centuries, when the celebrated trinity of Saint Thyagaraja (1767-1847) and his contemporaries, Muthuswami Dikshitar and Shyama Sastri, held sway.
Those were the days when civilization was river-based. Things have changed since, and, today, Chennai is the Mecca of Carnatic music. The district, more particularly, Tiruvaiyaru, 15 kms from Thanjavur city, still reverberates with the sounds of Carnatic music for five days in a year, when it hosts the internationally-famous Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana, to commemorate the death anniversary of Saint Thyagaraja.
The Saint passed away 167 years ago, on Pushya Bahula Panchami. Pushya is the name of the month in the lunar calendar. Bahula is the dark or the second fortnight, while Panchami is the fifth day of the waning moon, according to the Hindu almanac. Translated into the Gregorian calendar, which we follow now, the Aradhana date varies from year to year, though not the month.
I was in Tiruvaiyaru for the Aradhana—as I have been doing for the last decade or so—this time from 17^th to 22^nd January. I mostly attend the evening concerts, which leaves me free time in the mornings. Thanjavur district is also famous for its temples, with Kumbakonam being the hub for most of the famous Shaiva and Vaishnava shrines, besides those dedicated to the Navagrahas, the nine planets. I, therefore, took the opportunity on one of the days to visit a few temples.
The region is also the strong-hold of the Moopanars, the land-owning caste. The late G.K. Moopanar was the most famous among them. Traditionally Congress, the Moopanars are proud of Mr. Moopanar and equally so about his son, Mr. G.K. Vasan, a union minister now. In fact, the family is well-known for its public service and is the main patron of Sri Thiyagabrahma Mahotsava Sabha, the body that organizes Sri Thyagaraja Aradhana. Mr. Moopanar was its president until his death, and the post is now held by his brother, Mr. G.R. Moopanar.
Our cab driver too was a Moopanar, without much land, though. “My grandfather squandered the 32 acres that we once owned,” he confessed. Our driver was a talkative man: so am I.  Would he vote for the Congress, I asked. “No way. Modi,” he replied. It was his opinion, I opined. It is the opinion of most people here, he countered. “Jayalalithaa wants her partymen to ensure that the AIADMK won all the 39 seats to the Lok Sabha,” I reminded him. “This is not an assembly election,” he responded. “It is for the prime minister and we want Modi as pm. Did you see the crowds at Modi’s Tiruchi rally? My car couldn’t enter the city that day.”  He could be right. An opinion poll conducted by Junior Vikatan, a political journal belonging to the Vikatan group, published a survey which showed that about forty per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Modi.
According to the survey, the AIADMK could get thirty percent, the DMK and the others the remaining thirty per cent. Another poll has put the BJP vote at a modest 17 per cent. The BJP is trying to woo the DMDK of Vijayakant to cobble together a non-AIADMK, non-DMK third front. The DMDK is being wooed by the DMK too, but the party’s vote has shrunk badly and only three per cent are inclined to vote for it, according to pollsters.
Back in my hotel, I asked the room boy whom he would vote for. DMK, he replied. But wasn’t this an election for parliament, I asked him. “Yes, but my family always votes for the DMK,” he replied. As his reply shows, the traditional DMK base is intact. Amma, despite her perceived regard for Mr. Narendra Modi, at present thinks that her party, in alliance with the two Communist parties, can sweep the polls. This is where she could trip.
The Communist parties are a spent force. Their traditional base, the unionized workforce, is shrinking. Most of the working class is either non-union or on contract. Nobody knows the real strength of the Communists. This is because they are past-masters in the art of political opportunism. In Tamil Nadu, after MGR’s demise, they know that the ruling party is shown the door every five years. So, every five years, they join hands with the opposition, bargain for a few seats and win. At the end of the five years, they gravitate towards the opposition. Left to themselves, they would find it difficult to retain their deposits.
The BJP, bereft of the support of the two Kazhagams, has been plowing a lone furrow for the past ten years. Most, if not all, of the BJP supporters, I know, vote for the AIADMK in the assembly elections to keep the DMK out. The DMK is perceived to be anti-Hindu. This election could be different, though. Many Tamils, like my cab driver—like people elsewhere in India—have realized that they are going to vote for a prime minister and are planning to vote accordingly. India has, in the personality of Mr. Modi, perhaps for the first time since Indira Gandhi, a leader with a pan-Indian appeal. This, I feel, could be detrimental to the regional parties.
If Ms. Jayalalithaa sees the writing on the wall and goes for a pre-poll alliance with the BJP, she can sweep the elections. On the other hand, if she feels that the minorities would not vote for the combine and sticks to the Communists, she would be hard-pressed to win half of the 39 seats from TN. Here too, the minority card, like in most states, is over-played. It was only the Hindu vote which enabled her to win big in the 2011 assembly polls. The minorities tend to trust the Congress and the DMK more. Despite being drubbed elsewhere in the state, the Congress and the DMK did well in the Christian-dominated Kanniyakumari district in 2011.
This time around, with Modi leading the charge, it would be the BJP’s turn to eat into the AIADMK vote, for, as I said, the DMK vote-share might not go up, but its base is intact. On its own, the BJP may not win many seats, but it can spoil the chances of the AIADMK.
The Modi factor can change the arithmetic in the entire south. In Karnataka, a powerful Modi campaign can bring in handsome dividends, for the people know that this is an election to select the country’s prime minister. Andhra Pradesh is perhaps the only state in the country where the Congress has successfully diverted the attention from poor governance to separate statehood for Telengana. However, it is unlikely to reap any dividends in the Telengana region, while drawing a blank in the SeemaAndhra region, where the YSR Congress of Jaganmohan Reddy is expected to do well. The Congress got him released from prison, hoping that he would help them, but the YSR Congress, a family-run party, is aware that the Congress would be decimated at the national level. The BJP can perform better in AP, if it responds to the overtures of the Telugu Desam.
Kerala is the odd man out in the southern region. Dr. Amartya Sen’s favourite state has no industries, no jobs and its forest cover is being steadily eroded by settlers from the plains. It survives on remittances from abroad and from the rest of India. Still, the Congress-led ruling alliance is expected to do well. Television arm-chair pundits pretend not to know the reason. The answer is simple: Christians vote for the Congress and their own Kerala Congress, while the Muslims vote for the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). Christians and Muslims, together, constitute about 45 per cent of the population. The Hindu vote traditionally goes to the CPI (M). The CPI (M) comes to power on the Hindu vote and spends the next five years giving sops to the minorities to woo them. The BJP growth in Kerala can, therefore, be only at the expense of the Left Front. Opinion polls clearly show this. While in 2013, it was expected that the Left Front would garner a majority of the twenty seats from the state, latest polls show that the Left Front is trailing the Congress-led Front. Good for the BJP in the long run. Once in power at the centre, the party should infuse fresh blood and nurture young talent to enable the party to grow in the state.

- See more at: http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/modi-favourite-tamil-rural-heartland-100024490.html#sthash.yQleLKs6.uP14VlHZ.dpuf