by R Jagannathan Mar 17, 2014
As expected, Arvind Kejriwal may seek to challenge BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in Varanasi. Though the Aam Aadmi Party has qualified this by claiming it will poll Varanasi voters before Kejriwal takes the plunge, in the kind of unstructured polling that the party keeps doing, the real decision could end up being that the party's leaders. Put another way, Kejriwal will decide if Kejriwal will contest, for one hasn't seen a huge clamour for his candidature in this holiest of holy cities for Hindus so far.
Will it make a difference to the outcome? Unlikely, for Varanasi knows that it will be hosting a future PM. Voting for Kejriwal is like voting for a future CM, possibly, of Delhi. Who needs him in Varanasi? It is highly unlikely that the politically sharp voters of Varanasi will vote for someone who wants to be someone else and is merely using them to make a point.
But if Kejriwal's candidature won't make a difference to Varanasi, is it pointless? Absolutely not. Kejriwal's candidature is about burnishing his own CV at no cost - a CV that has lost some of its lustre in recent weeks.
For Kejriwal this is a win-win for the simple reason that he has nothing to lose anyway. If he loses his deposit, he will say only he had the guts to take on Modi - though there is still the already announced BSP and SP candidates to think about. If he loses, but not badly, he can say he could have won but for the moneypower of Ambani and Adani. If he wins - well who won't dream of miracles?
The underdog always wins hearts, never mind the outcome. As one wag put it on twitter, if a cycle crashes against a truck deliberately, it is the truck driver who will be held guilty.
The truth is fighting Modi keeps Kejriwal in the news all the way till the end of the Lok Sabha polls and gives his party visibility elsewhere. This is not bad tactics at all. Good for him and his party.
The broader questions relating to Modi, Kejriwal and Varanasi are the following:
What does Modi gain from it? What are his costs?
Answer; if Modi wins both seats, his national stature goes up. He will have proved that he can win outside Gujarat. Also, his very presence in the fray energises his party in eastern UP and adjoining areas of Bihar. The party gains. The only negatives are he has to put up with irritating media coverage of Kejriwal.
If he chooses to fight from two places and wins both, won't BJP have to resign one seat?
Answer: If Modi wins both, he has to resign one seat, and it may have to be Gujarat. His fellow Gujaratis may forgive him for this for the joy of seeing him as PM.
Will the opposition field one candidate to fend off Modi in Varanasi?
Answer; This is just possible, but it is difficult to see BSP and SP both agreeing to support - or not oppose - Kejriwal. This polarisation could help the BJP garner votes all over. If it's a three- or four-way fight, Modi benefits from a division of the anti votes. Either way Modi wins - for Varanasi has never entertained either BSP or SP. Congress voters - excluding some Muslims - will probably prefer Modi. In sum, this battle is not what it seems. It is good for Kejriwal, and good for the BJP and Modi too. The losers are the regional parties - who will lose their claim to local superiority. Interesting.
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/kejriwal-is-taking-on-modi-in-varanasi-only-to-burnish-his-cv-1437061.html?utm_source=ref_article
by R Jagannathan Mar 17, 2014
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/kejriwal-is-taking-on-modi-in-varanasi-only-to-burnish-his-cv-1437061.html?utm_source=ref_article
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/kejriwal-is-taking-on-modi-in-varanasi-only-to-burnish-his-cv-1437061.html?utm_source=ref_article
As expected, Arvind Kejriwal may seek to challenge BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in Varanasi. Though the Aam Aadmi Party has qualified this by claiming it will poll Varanasi voters before Kejriwal takes the plunge, in the kind of unstructured polling that the party keeps doing, the real decision could end up being that the party's leaders. Put another way, Kejriwal will decide if Kejriwal will contest, for one hasn't seen a huge clamour for his candidature in this holiest of holy cities for Hindus so far.Will it make a difference to the outcome? Unlikely, for Varanasi knows that it will be hosting a future PM. Voting for Kejriwal is like voting for a future CM, possibly, of Delhi. Who needs him in Varanasi? It is highly unlikely that the politically sharp voters of Varanasi will vote for someone who wants to be someone else and is merely using them to make a point.
But if Kejriwal's candidature won't make a difference to Varanasi, is it pointless? Absolutely not. Kejriwal's candidature is about burnishing his own CV at no cost - a CV that has lost some of its lustre in recent weeks.
For Kejriwal this is a win-win for the simple reason that he has nothing to lose anyway. If he loses his deposit, he will say only he had the guts to take on Modi - though there is still the already announced BSP and SP candidates to think about. If he loses, but not badly, he can say he could have won but for the moneypower of Ambani and Adani. If he wins - well who won't dream of miracles?
The underdog always wins hearts, never mind the outcome. As one wag put it on twitter, if a cycle crashes against a truck deliberately, it is the truck driver who will be held guilty.
The truth is fighting Modi keeps Kejriwal in the news all the way till the end of the Lok Sabha polls and gives his party visibility elsewhere. This is not bad tactics at all. Good for him and his party.
The broader questions relating to Modi, Kejriwal and Varanasi are the following:
What does Modi gain from it? What are his costs?
Answer; if Modi wins both seats, his national stature goes up. He will have proved that he can win outside Gujarat. Also, his very presence in the fray energises his party in eastern UP and adjoining areas of Bihar. The party gains. The only negatives are he has to put up with irritating media coverage of Kejriwal.
If he chooses to fight from two places and wins both, won't BJP have to resign one seat?
Answer: If Modi wins both, he has to resign one seat, and it may have to be Gujarat. His fellow Gujaratis may forgive him for this for the joy of seeing him as PM.
Will the opposition field one candidate to fend off Modi in Varanasi?
Answer; This is just possible, but it is difficult to see BSP and SP both agreeing to support - or not oppose - Kejriwal. This polarisation could help the BJP garner votes all over. If it's a three- or four-way fight, Modi benefits from a division of the anti votes. Either way Modi wins - for Varanasi has never entertained either BSP or SP. Congress voters - excluding some Muslims - will probably prefer Modi. In sum, this battle is not what it seems. It is good for Kejriwal, and good for the BJP and Modi too. The losers are the regional parties - who will lose their claim to local superiority. Interesting.
Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/kejriwal-is-taking-on-modi-in-varanasi-only-to-burnish-his-cv-1437061.html?utm_source=ref_article
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