In the surprising success of AAP in Delhi 2013 elections, its total victory margin from 28 constituencies from where it won, is 2.12 lakh
compared to BJP’s 3.74 lakh*. This number is pretty interesting
considering its relevance to the Aam Aadmi Party- the leading vanguard
of the anti-corruption, honest brigade. Not surprising, they often
remind us of the communist principle of “To each according to his need,
from each according to his capacity”. This is not because they subscribe
to this idea, but because their economic principles are equally
noble-sounding, pro-people types, apparently honest in intentionand yet
suffer from an implementation-impossibility due to ‘real-life’ factors.
Coming back to the story; before the poll pundits finished calculating the victory margin in Delhi, our activist-outside-anarchist-inside, CM Kejriwal resigned. However, that’s not where the story ends. While exiting, Kejriwal decided to take the mightiest of men down with him. In that context, a FIR was registered against the man alleged to be running the country: Mukesh Ambani, alongwith the minister of petroleum Veerapa Moily and V.K Sibal.
The question that we should be asking is: What business does Delhi’s Anti-Corruption Bureau have in a matter under the purview of the Central government, technically emanating from the recommendations of CCEA headed by C. Rangarajan, with the contentious gas-blocks in Andhra Pradesh far from Delhi, and the matter pursuant from a decision of the Gujarat High Court?
To find an answer, let us try understanding Kejriwal’s electoral arithmetic.
Electoral Arithmetic
Delhi has close to 70,000 autorickshaws which guzzle CNG. What is more interesting is that each auto-rickshaw is driven in two, sometimes three, shifts thus making 2-3 autowallahs dependent on a single rickshaw. That is no small number.
*Victory Margin calculated by TIR Research team based on data from Election Commission of India for Delhi Elections 2013.
For an election where winning margins of the two top parties are 3.74 lakh and 2.12 lakh and respectively, an electoral strength of 3.3 lakh votes is the most tempting en-bloc support on plate.
Of course, it is no one’s case that all of these people have been enchanted by the new winds of supposed change. Yet, even if 60-70% of this block votes for AAP, resulting in a number between 1.97 lakhs and 2.30 lakhs, it clearly needs little innovation in other areas of electoral maths.
The best part of this target group is that it doubles up as a campaign-volunteer-team besides constituting a big part of the total votes cast in its favour. According to one source, about 40,000 of the autos were carrying AAP’s posters in the first round of campaigning in August 2013. In fact, such is AAP’s fascination for the autowallah network that it took up several of their issues, suo moto or requested, in its 49-day stint at governance, or the lack of it.
It is pretty surprising that even in a short span of 1.5 months; it managed to organise a mahapanchayat for the group that was angry with its non-delivery of promises, supported them against Delhi police working to withdraw the latter’s right to fine errant drivers who refuse to ferry passengers, even at the risk of jeopardising middle-class commuters or fulfilling the rest of their electoral promises. After all, middle-class commuters don’t vote en-bloc.
With such things in the background, their resonance with the hike in gas price becomes so relevant.Apparently, as mentioned on their website, the case can be registered in Delhi’s ACB because of the territorial aspect of the transaction. By that logic, everything that the Centre does can be registered in ACB, and yet, out of all issues AAP finds great injustice in the doubling of gas prices. Perhaps it is and perhaps it is not, that is a different question. And AAP’s brouhaha over the issue may turn out to be good for the country. The pricing mechanism is discussed in detail by us in an article on the Economic Times(here).
George Washington had said, “It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one”. Well, to say that for AAP, there was no political reason behind stirring the fire over expensive gas and all was done in the good name of the moral fibre is well, Kejriwal’s bad excuse.
Power Struggle over Power Crisis
In keeping with its general behaviour of crusader-spiritedness, bring govt-on-its-knees behaviour, AAP went after the people involved in gas pricing. What it should have done instead if it really wanted to make right the wrong, was to question the economic logic of the Rangrajan panel’s methodology in arriving at the recommendations. If the methodology can be proved wrong, everything consequent to it immediately falls flat. However, this modus operandi would involve negotiation, careful analysis, study of economic principles behind oil extraction and pricing, international benchmarking – in short, a study bereft of ‘charisma’ and zing. Instead, take the country’s most powerful man to task and you make instant headlines. So, AAP went for the latter.
Now, AAP’s whole engagement with the power issue started with them promising free and cheap bijli-paani to middle-class people. Also, setting a major populist precedent, they had also announced waiver of dues for 24,000 people who had participated in their rebellious andolan. Alas! Just before making the exit they forgot to settle the appropriation bill for Rs 6 Cr needed for the 50% waiver leaving everybody in a nebulous fix: the defaulters, the discoms who are worried about recovering their subsidy dues, the next govt which will inherit this mess.
The Story
On June 28, 2013; the decision to increase the gas prices from 1st April 2014 was approved by the Manmohan Singh government.
AAP released its manifesto promising 50% reduction in electricity tariff on Nov 20, 2013 while the other two national parties promised a “electricity surplus” status for Delhi. The promises were made in hurry, all sounding attractive like the ‘50% off’ tag during sale season, the implementation was not thought about even as experts tried pointing out the gross anomaly between dreams and reality.
With the hike in gas prices, cost of power is estimated to go up by 60-70%. Considering that in the subsidy bracket, a total of 5,437 million units are consumed, the total subsidy cost to be borne by the government becomes untenable. The discoms together earn INR 15,000 Cr as revenue. Kejriwal’s 50% reduction promise amounts toINR 7500 Cr to be borne by the State govt. After gas price-hike, the gas based power cost would have resulted in an additional subsidy burden of INR 1,456 crore per annum. Having realised that this is an unserviceable gargantuan amount, about 20% of Delhi’s entire state budget of INR 37,450 Cr and compared with the Delhi planned outlay being INR 15,000 Cr, the future would have looked pretty bleak to the activist Chief Minister.
Recover the amount due to pilferage by prominent distribution companies and use that to meetshort-term cash crunch- this was his innovative idea of practical economics. All this was based on a set of assumptions and to-be-done programs like the CAG audit. In doing so, they disregarded the woes faced by these distribution companies which have been serving the Delhi-state for 10-15 years. They have net under-recovery to the tune of INR 20,000 Cr and were deficient in funds to pay to NTPC which threatened to cut off supply until High Court intervened. Rather than understand the issues of the entire supply chain, AAP decided to blame the so-called rich to appeal to the ‘poor’ end-users at the mercy of these companies. This was exactly in line with their general lack of economic sense which doesn’t recognise the principle: One shouldn’t borrow to pay for short-term personal luxuries, one borrows to create assets to be able to pay for them.
To assume that Kejriwal is a naïve man without political intent, as done by the two national parties earlier much to their own detriment, is immature of us and suicidal for the opposition.
So, it’s not that Kejriwal is unaware of the political mileage of going after the richest man of India, an ideology he has been milking for quite some time just like Modi milks his Gujarat brand and Rahul Gandhitries to milk his ancestry in want of anything substantial.
Hence, he resigned. Though, it was hardly surprising. After countless examples of anarchistic demonstrations within the government by a popularly elected Chief Minister, midnight blanket-covered sleepovers on the road, lawless raids by the minister of law, reward of civil disobedience participants, threatening letters to power distribution companies, and other innovative governance mechanisms, it looked like he was looking for an excuse to exit with the head held high. If one’s entire andolan is based on “gas”, literally and figuratively, it makes business sense to get out before the brickbats are thrown at you for not fulfilling your electoral promises. The worst statement that will come your way is, “Had he been there, he would have done it”, as they used to say for Sehwag, “Tik jayega, to century bana dega”. And so it was back to the roads. Governance was boring. Activism is the flavour of the season.
There has seldom been a chief minister who was so eager to bring down his own government. It was clear to him that he could do little in terms of meeting the whole rainbow of promises on gas, he made to his core voter base – the autowallahs, the middle-class. Unlike the dominant opinion, his political journey is not akin to the JP Narayan movement and other socialists’ as it was made out to be. It’s filled with the same political overtones, stratagems and acumen that are the markings of any other political party – secure the vote base.
Probably, he wished to capitalise on the resulting sympathy wave that would emanate once he resumed his allegation-distributing business. It was the same sympathy wave that cataclysmed him onto the Delhi gaddi. However, at this juncture, it found little takers. Probably everyone was tired of the tactics and the manoeuvrings even as he has started another round of mudslinging. No wonder, the autowallahs feel ‘betrayed’ and have decided to snub him before Lok Sabha polls.
One can be on any side of Kejriwal-debate. And yet, one must know that even good intentions do not finance immediate bills. By that logic, we can forever live in the Utopia of having surplus cash to set right all the ills of the world, once we remove corruption from every nook and corner. However, this is a child’s dream. A political party is expected to get down on one’s knees, deep into the mud, and start cleaning whatever they can. All this while keeping the nation afloat, much like the people who dig the roads to lay pipes keep the road functioning, albeit through a narrow pathway.
The road is paved with the concrete of hardwork, not by the flimsy tar of dreamy intentions.
49 days was good enough for everyone to learn this.
Coming back to the story; before the poll pundits finished calculating the victory margin in Delhi, our activist-outside-anarchist-inside, CM Kejriwal resigned. However, that’s not where the story ends. While exiting, Kejriwal decided to take the mightiest of men down with him. In that context, a FIR was registered against the man alleged to be running the country: Mukesh Ambani, alongwith the minister of petroleum Veerapa Moily and V.K Sibal.
The question that we should be asking is: What business does Delhi’s Anti-Corruption Bureau have in a matter under the purview of the Central government, technically emanating from the recommendations of CCEA headed by C. Rangarajan, with the contentious gas-blocks in Andhra Pradesh far from Delhi, and the matter pursuant from a decision of the Gujarat High Court?
To find an answer, let us try understanding Kejriwal’s electoral arithmetic.
Electoral Arithmetic
Delhi has close to 70,000 autorickshaws which guzzle CNG. What is more interesting is that each auto-rickshaw is driven in two, sometimes three, shifts thus making 2-3 autowallahs dependent on a single rickshaw. That is no small number.
*Victory Margin calculated by TIR Research team based on data from Election Commission of India for Delhi Elections 2013.For an election where winning margins of the two top parties are 3.74 lakh and 2.12 lakh and respectively, an electoral strength of 3.3 lakh votes is the most tempting en-bloc support on plate.
Of course, it is no one’s case that all of these people have been enchanted by the new winds of supposed change. Yet, even if 60-70% of this block votes for AAP, resulting in a number between 1.97 lakhs and 2.30 lakhs, it clearly needs little innovation in other areas of electoral maths.
The best part of this target group is that it doubles up as a campaign-volunteer-team besides constituting a big part of the total votes cast in its favour. According to one source, about 40,000 of the autos were carrying AAP’s posters in the first round of campaigning in August 2013. In fact, such is AAP’s fascination for the autowallah network that it took up several of their issues, suo moto or requested, in its 49-day stint at governance, or the lack of it.
It is pretty surprising that even in a short span of 1.5 months; it managed to organise a mahapanchayat for the group that was angry with its non-delivery of promises, supported them against Delhi police working to withdraw the latter’s right to fine errant drivers who refuse to ferry passengers, even at the risk of jeopardising middle-class commuters or fulfilling the rest of their electoral promises. After all, middle-class commuters don’t vote en-bloc.
With such things in the background, their resonance with the hike in gas price becomes so relevant.Apparently, as mentioned on their website, the case can be registered in Delhi’s ACB because of the territorial aspect of the transaction. By that logic, everything that the Centre does can be registered in ACB, and yet, out of all issues AAP finds great injustice in the doubling of gas prices. Perhaps it is and perhaps it is not, that is a different question. And AAP’s brouhaha over the issue may turn out to be good for the country. The pricing mechanism is discussed in detail by us in an article on the Economic Times(here).
George Washington had said, “It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one”. Well, to say that for AAP, there was no political reason behind stirring the fire over expensive gas and all was done in the good name of the moral fibre is well, Kejriwal’s bad excuse.
Power Struggle over Power Crisis
In keeping with its general behaviour of crusader-spiritedness, bring govt-on-its-knees behaviour, AAP went after the people involved in gas pricing. What it should have done instead if it really wanted to make right the wrong, was to question the economic logic of the Rangrajan panel’s methodology in arriving at the recommendations. If the methodology can be proved wrong, everything consequent to it immediately falls flat. However, this modus operandi would involve negotiation, careful analysis, study of economic principles behind oil extraction and pricing, international benchmarking – in short, a study bereft of ‘charisma’ and zing. Instead, take the country’s most powerful man to task and you make instant headlines. So, AAP went for the latter.
Now, AAP’s whole engagement with the power issue started with them promising free and cheap bijli-paani to middle-class people. Also, setting a major populist precedent, they had also announced waiver of dues for 24,000 people who had participated in their rebellious andolan. Alas! Just before making the exit they forgot to settle the appropriation bill for Rs 6 Cr needed for the 50% waiver leaving everybody in a nebulous fix: the defaulters, the discoms who are worried about recovering their subsidy dues, the next govt which will inherit this mess.
The Story
On June 28, 2013; the decision to increase the gas prices from 1st April 2014 was approved by the Manmohan Singh government.
AAP released its manifesto promising 50% reduction in electricity tariff on Nov 20, 2013 while the other two national parties promised a “electricity surplus” status for Delhi. The promises were made in hurry, all sounding attractive like the ‘50% off’ tag during sale season, the implementation was not thought about even as experts tried pointing out the gross anomaly between dreams and reality.
With the hike in gas prices, cost of power is estimated to go up by 60-70%. Considering that in the subsidy bracket, a total of 5,437 million units are consumed, the total subsidy cost to be borne by the government becomes untenable. The discoms together earn INR 15,000 Cr as revenue. Kejriwal’s 50% reduction promise amounts toINR 7500 Cr to be borne by the State govt. After gas price-hike, the gas based power cost would have resulted in an additional subsidy burden of INR 1,456 crore per annum. Having realised that this is an unserviceable gargantuan amount, about 20% of Delhi’s entire state budget of INR 37,450 Cr and compared with the Delhi planned outlay being INR 15,000 Cr, the future would have looked pretty bleak to the activist Chief Minister.
Recover the amount due to pilferage by prominent distribution companies and use that to meetshort-term cash crunch- this was his innovative idea of practical economics. All this was based on a set of assumptions and to-be-done programs like the CAG audit. In doing so, they disregarded the woes faced by these distribution companies which have been serving the Delhi-state for 10-15 years. They have net under-recovery to the tune of INR 20,000 Cr and were deficient in funds to pay to NTPC which threatened to cut off supply until High Court intervened. Rather than understand the issues of the entire supply chain, AAP decided to blame the so-called rich to appeal to the ‘poor’ end-users at the mercy of these companies. This was exactly in line with their general lack of economic sense which doesn’t recognise the principle: One shouldn’t borrow to pay for short-term personal luxuries, one borrows to create assets to be able to pay for them.
To assume that Kejriwal is a naïve man without political intent, as done by the two national parties earlier much to their own detriment, is immature of us and suicidal for the opposition.
So, it’s not that Kejriwal is unaware of the political mileage of going after the richest man of India, an ideology he has been milking for quite some time just like Modi milks his Gujarat brand and Rahul Gandhitries to milk his ancestry in want of anything substantial.
Hence, he resigned. Though, it was hardly surprising. After countless examples of anarchistic demonstrations within the government by a popularly elected Chief Minister, midnight blanket-covered sleepovers on the road, lawless raids by the minister of law, reward of civil disobedience participants, threatening letters to power distribution companies, and other innovative governance mechanisms, it looked like he was looking for an excuse to exit with the head held high. If one’s entire andolan is based on “gas”, literally and figuratively, it makes business sense to get out before the brickbats are thrown at you for not fulfilling your electoral promises. The worst statement that will come your way is, “Had he been there, he would have done it”, as they used to say for Sehwag, “Tik jayega, to century bana dega”. And so it was back to the roads. Governance was boring. Activism is the flavour of the season.
There has seldom been a chief minister who was so eager to bring down his own government. It was clear to him that he could do little in terms of meeting the whole rainbow of promises on gas, he made to his core voter base – the autowallahs, the middle-class. Unlike the dominant opinion, his political journey is not akin to the JP Narayan movement and other socialists’ as it was made out to be. It’s filled with the same political overtones, stratagems and acumen that are the markings of any other political party – secure the vote base.
Probably, he wished to capitalise on the resulting sympathy wave that would emanate once he resumed his allegation-distributing business. It was the same sympathy wave that cataclysmed him onto the Delhi gaddi. However, at this juncture, it found little takers. Probably everyone was tired of the tactics and the manoeuvrings even as he has started another round of mudslinging. No wonder, the autowallahs feel ‘betrayed’ and have decided to snub him before Lok Sabha polls.
One can be on any side of Kejriwal-debate. And yet, one must know that even good intentions do not finance immediate bills. By that logic, we can forever live in the Utopia of having surplus cash to set right all the ills of the world, once we remove corruption from every nook and corner. However, this is a child’s dream. A political party is expected to get down on one’s knees, deep into the mud, and start cleaning whatever they can. All this while keeping the nation afloat, much like the people who dig the roads to lay pipes keep the road functioning, albeit through a narrow pathway.
The road is paved with the concrete of hardwork, not by the flimsy tar of dreamy intentions.
49 days was good enough for everyone to learn this.
A version of this story was published by the authors in the Economic Times here.
Akhil Handa, Aparajita Tripathi
Akhil Handa is the former Asian Energy
analyst with JP Morgan Hong Kong, Currently Editor-in-Chief of The
Indian Republic and a founding member of Citizens for Accountable
Governance (CAG).
Aparajita Tripathi is the ex Infrastructure consultant at PwC, Currently
Research Head of The Indian Republic and a founding member of Citizens
for Accountable Governance (CAG).
- See
more at:
http://www.theindianrepublic.com/tbp/the-real-reason-why-kejriwal-went-after-ambani-100028261.html#sthash.t1kv7AGp.dpuf
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