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Monday, 20 May 2013

The demographic coup of Islam – R. K. Ohri

Ram K Ohri IPS 

“It would be in order to recall late P.N. Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier’s analysis that the fertility of Muslims was about 10% higher than that of Hindus before independence and is now 25 to 30% higher than the Hindu rate. Hindus have lost considerable ground since 1947. Yet no Hindu political or spiritual leader has tried to rouse the millions of ill-informed Hindus about the looming threat of demographic decimation of their ancient faith and civilisational values.” – R.K. Ohri

1 – Tool of asymmetric war

Islamists are great strategists. Decades ago, while Europe slept and India slumbered, their leaders decided on a powerful global game changer, seeing in demography the key to power in a democracy, as elections are won or lost on the basis of voter support to a particular party or candidate. So, to achieve their ambition of world dominion, they decided on a global campaign to overwhelm the world by sheer increase in Muslim population. This is now emerging as a deadly weapon for capturing power in many parts of the world. Christian Europe and Hindu-dominated India appear to be on the hit list for takeover through fast population growth. After a limbo of nearly four centuries, radical Islam is again in fast forward mode.

Islam is essentially conquest oriented, as can be seen from the Quran, the Hadith and two authentic commentaries, the Sahi Bukhari and the Sahi Muslim. Its ultimate goal is Dar ul Islam, to be done first by inviting infidels to voluntarily accept the religion of the Prophet (‘Dawa’), or else by recourse to jihad. This quest has now been resumed.

Muslim strategists endeavour to humble non-Muslim civilizations by waging asymmetric war – jihad – against them through non-State actors promoted by Islamic States for launching terrorist attacks across the world.

Many bleeding heart liberals have been highly critical of US action against jihadi terrorists without acknowledging the repetitive targeting of US outposts and troops for years before the daring 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers and Pentagon.

In 1995, an American training facility was bombed in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) and five US soldiers killed. The same year, an attempt was made in Sudan to assassinate the then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was regarded by Islamists as a US stooge. In 1998, the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were bombed, killing 224 persons including 12 Americans. American intelligence agencies said these attacks were organised by bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, which was responsible for attacking USS Cole near Yemen, claiming the lives of 17 US marines and soldiers. The attack on Twin Towers was the last straw which prompted the then US President George Bush to declare war on Al Qaeda.

9/11 was followed by a dastardly attack on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001 by Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Tayeba.

Since then, the western world and India have been subjected to thousands of jihadi attacks, the most spectacular being the Mumbai Massacre of 26 November 2008. The last decade has seen, world over, possibly 18,300 jihadi attacks in various countries. The cost in terms of human lives is nearly 60,000 innocents killed and roughly another 90,000 injured worldwide.

Most attacks were by so-called non-State Actors. But it is well-known that all non-State actors are fathered, nurtured and armed by one or other Islamic country. Pakistan has played a stellar role in fostering and strengthening Al Qaeda and Taliban, apart from siring Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Another Islamic strategy (sanctioned by the Prophet, as stated in Mishkat-ul-Masabih) is to exhort the faithful to have more children for multiplying the global strength of Umma.

This was clinically analysed by late Oriana Fallaci in her seminal The Force of Reason. She showed that the ultimate goal of Islamists is to overwhelm and overrun all non-Muslim countries by sheer growth in numbers and simultaneously undermine their governance by migration and infiltration of surplus Muslim population into non-Muslim countries. This demographic jihad of Islam has the potential to destroy democracy, root and branch. Once democracy is put to sleep through a demographic coup, a Shariah-ruled State can be established.

The campaign for increasing Muslim population, in non-Muslim countries and Muslim societies, is being pushed forward with the help of Ulema and Islamic scholars who issue regular diktats directing Muslims not to accept the small family norm on the ground that Islam does not permit use of contraceptives. Simultaneously, the growing population in Muslim dominated countries is being pushed into non-Muslim countries for jobs, with a long-term objective of establishing domination. This double whammy of increasing Muslim population and promoting migration and infiltration into non-Muslim countries has played havoc with the geopolitical scene in many countries where Muslims are still in minority.

Importance of Demography

To progress economically, a country needs adequate and efficient human resources. It also needs an ample reservoir of youthful manpower to defend its borders from predators and hostile groups; especially countries like India, China, America, Russia and Australia which have extensive land mass, large borders and over-stretched coastlines. The demographic constituents of a society determine a nation’s societal mores, its religious and social composition and socio-political attitudes, the mode of governance and civilisational values.

Death by Demography

Rewind to 1974 when Algerian President Boumedienne famously declared in his address to the UN General Assembly: “One day millions of men will leave the southern hemisphere of this planet to burst upon the northern one. But not as friends. Because they will burst in to conquer, and they will conquer by populating it with their children. Victory will come to us from the wombs of our women”.

In The Force of Reason, Oriana Fallaci dubbed this ‘the Policy-of-the-Womb’ for breeding Muslims in abundance and then exporting them to take possession of a territory or a country. She said a Resolution passed in the same year during a session of the Islamic Conference at Lahore in Pakistan spelt out a plan to turn into a tide the then modest flow of immigrants to Europe and penetrate the continent through demographic preponderance. She said that in every mosque of Europe, the Friday prayer is accompanied by the Imam’s exhortation to Muslim women to bear at least five children. And if the immigrant has two wives, they will have ten children and so on…

Fallaci chided European liberals as ‘intellectual cicadas’ for promoting fundamentalist Islam across the continent. Long before Geert Wilders took up cudgels against the rising crescendo of radical Islam across Europe, Fallaci was the first intellectual to warn that Christians were in the midst of “a cultural, political and existential war” with Islam. She recalled an interview with Palestinian leader George Habash in Beirut in March 1972; he told her the Palestinian problem was more than a clash with Israel, their enemy was the whole West, including Europe and America. “Our revolution is a part of the world revolution”, he asserted.

He meant it was going to be the cultural war, the demographic war, the religious war, waged by stealing a country from its citizens. Without mincing words, George Habash disclosed the global agenda of Islam: “To advance step by step. Milimeter by millimeter. Year after year. Decade after decade. Determined, stubborn and patient. This is our strategy. A strategy that we shall expand throughout the planet.”

So as early as the 1970s, the Muslim leadership across the globe had formulated a grand plan of a demographic coup. Rapid growth in Muslim population is now a worldwide phenomenon, especially in non-Muslim countries like India, Nepal and Thailand. Akbar S. Ahmed, a Pakistani diplomat turned scholar, boasts that due to a unique combination of geo-political factors, Islam is in confrontation with all major religions: Judaism in the Middle East, Christianity in the Balkans, Chechnya, Nigeria, Sudan, and sporadically in The Philippines and Indonesia, Hinduism in south Asia, and after the Taliban blew up the statues in Bamiyan, Buddhism.

It seems that an Islamogeddon, turbo-driven by billions of petro-dollars bankrolled by Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries, and strategically powered by Pakistan’s jihadi storm-troopers, is on the move across Europe and India.

The case of Lebanon

Lebanon is a classic example of a society driven to violent politico-religious civil war on account of large-scale demographic changes due to fast decline in the fertility rate of Maronite Christians. In 1932, Maronite Christians comprised roughly 55% of Lebanon’s population; Muslims were around 45%.

On this basis, Lebanon’s National Pact of 1943 stipulated that political power would be shared between Christians and Muslims as per ratio of their population in the country. Consequently, the posts of top ministers were apportioned between Christians and Muslims in a ratio of 6:5 (six posts to Christians, 5 to Muslims). It was further decided that the President of Lebanon would be a Christian and the Prime Minister a Muslim.

But within three decades, the tables were turned on the Christians. Due to large-scale acceptance of the small family norm, their share in the country’s population fell sharply and around 1970-72 Lebanon became a Muslim majority country. The denouement came because the fertility of Christians declined to four children per woman from the earlier average of six, while Muslims maintained their fertility rate at six children per woman. The decline could not be reversed despite the efforts of community leaders.

The civilisational conflicts started rising sharply even before the climactic demographic change. When Muslims became the majority community and staked claim to rule over the country, a civil war broke out in 1975 between the two communities. Ultimately the jihadi militias aided by Syria and neighbouring Muslim countries carried the day in a decade-long civil war. The Christians were routed; a few lakh migrated to Europe and USA. Presently the Christian population of Lebanon stands reduced to 25 percent or less and is declining rapidly. The embers of the civil war continue to glow every now and then leading to occasional outbreak of hostilities between the two communities.

Belatedly, European and American strategic analysts have woken up to the threat posed by the demographic surge of Islam. According to a study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Muslim population across the world was estimated at 1.65 billion in 2008 (global headcount 6.69 billion). Thus Muslims already constitute 24.31% of the world population.

A survey by the Pew Research Centre in 2009, however, placed the Muslim population at 1.57 billion and world population at 6.8 billion. The 2010 survey by Pew Research Forum shows Muslim population growing worldwide at 1.5% per annum, while the population of non-Muslims is growing barely at 0.7%.

Christian Europe is in serious panic because the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Muslims in Europe is three times higher than that of Christians. In 1900, Muslims constituted only 12% of the world population; now they are touching 25 percent in just one hundred years. And in tandem with the percentage increase in Muslim population, the incidence of jihad against non-Muslims across the globe has increased. – Vijayavaani, 29 March 2012

2 – Dirge of a dying Europe

Europe has woken up to the threat of likely Muslim domination of the continent within the next few decades. Across Europe, the fertility rates of Christians have fallen far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Islam is already the second largest religion of almost every European country. The European Union has an estimated 15-20 million Muslims, while the number of Muslims in the UK could be around two million or more. If the Muslims of the Balkans are added, the total Muslim population of Europe could add up to 53 million or more.

Muslim-dominated Kosovo broke away from Serbia in February 2008; it is now viewed as a beachhead for Islam’s speedy march across western and central Europe. Now the continent has four Islamic nations – Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Kosovo. As Muslims already comprise nearly one-third the population of Macedonia, homeland of Alexander the Great, that nation is likely to be Islamicised over the next two decades, despite stubborn opposition by Macedonian Christians. Soon the entire Balkans will be a Muslim dominated region of Europe, barring perhaps Serbia which has a long historical tradition of battling Muslims since the fourteenth century when the Serbs lost to the Ottoman Turks in the historic battle of Kosovo in 1389.

The demographic change has been accompanied by a surge in Islamic belligerence and in recent years Europe has witnessed many terrorist attacks. On 2 Nov 2004, Amsterdam witnessed the gruesome killing of Theo van Gogh, film director and descendant of Vincent van Gogh, for his controversial film, ‘Submission’, depicting the plight of a Muslim girl forced into an arranged marriage. The script was written by Ayaan Hirsi Ali, a Somali refugee and former member of the Dutch Parliament, who now lives in the USA under the shadow of a fatwa ordaining her death.

In one scene, which infuriated Muslim opinion, the documentary showed a girl in a see-through chador with Quranic verses written across her body along with whip marks. The film was about a forcibly married Muslim woman who was abused by her husband and raped by an uncle. Theo Van Gogh was first stabbed and then shot dead in public by Mohammed Bouyeri, a Moroccan with a Dutch Passport. A letter, affixed to the body with a dagger, declared that the film maker was assassinated because of his objectionable views about Islam. The missive was addressed to Ayaan Hirsi Ali who had acted in the documentary. The letter called for jihad against kafirs, especially the USA, Europe, the Netherlands and Hirsi Ali herself.

The film had to be withdrawn from the International Film Festival, Rotterdam, due to fear of violence. After Van Gogh’s brutal killing, there were ‘revenge’ fire bombings of some mosques and Muslim schools, followed by counterattacks on churches. Netherlands is home to approx. one million Muslims who comprise about 5.5% of the population.

Radical Islam’s onslaught on Europe continued unabated post 9/11. One ghastly attack was the bombing of four trains in Madrid on 11 March 2004, in which nearly 200 innocents, including children, were killed and 1500 wounded. Investigations revealed the bombings were the handiwork of Al-Qaeda related outfits. A few months before that, a taped threat purported to be from Osama bin Laden had surfaced, which listed Spain among the countries which should be attacked in future. Mohammed Atta, a lead pilot of the 9/11 attack on WTC and Pentagon, had reportedly visited Spain twice in 2001, perhaps for working out last-minute details with plotters living in Spain. The country has a sizeable Muslim population and a long history of conflict with Islam.

Fifteen months later, on 7 July 2005, London went through the horror of coordinated suicide attacks on underground trains and a double-decker bus, which took 56 lives (including four terrorists) and caused injuries to nearly 700 persons. The bombings were carried out by four Britishers, three of Pakistani and one of Jamaican descent. They were angered by the British government’s decision to send troops to Iraq in support of the American attack on Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Another attempt to bomb London’s public transport system was made on 21 July 2005, by exploding four bombs. Luckily only one minor injury was reported. On 29 July 2007, two car bombs were detected – one near a nightclub in Haymarket and another in Cockspur Street – and were disabled before they could be detonated. The next day, there was an attack on Glasgow Airport involving Bilal Abdullah and Kafeel Ahmed, an Indian national who died due to injuries sustained while carrying out the attack.

Bilal Abdullah was arrested in Australia. According to CBS News, on 28 June 2007, a message had appeared on an internet forum, Al-Hesbah, declaring, “Today I say: Rejoice, by Allah, London shall be bombed”, which suggested that the bombings were part of a well planned international plot.

The sharply rising proportion of ageing Christians in most European countries means that more and more migrants are needed to man the factories and transport systems, even defence forces. These numbers are likely to come from Africa and West Asia, and are likely Muslims. Thus there is a clear civilisational mismatch between the original and migrant populations.

Zachary Shore noted in, ‘Breeding Bin Ladens: America, Islam and the Future of Europe’ that, “the world’s median age is 24, but by 2050 it is projected to be 53-55 in Germany and Japan. Western Europe and Japan will grey the most. At the same time, Europe’s mortality rate is falling, so too is the birth rate. Ethnic Europeans are having fewer children and consequently their populations are shrinking. And with them shrinks the labour force.”

He forecasts that by 2050, Japan’s work-force – those aged between 16 and 64 – will drop by an extraordinary 37%; Italy’s will fall an even greater 39% and Germany’s by 18%. Presently the ratio of workers to pensioners is 4:1, but by 2050 it may drop to 2:1. That will put enormous strain on societies with high ageing populations by drastically reducing the percentage of working age young population, leading to an economic disaster.

Global Population Scenario

Developing countries are largely responsible for this state of affairs, having for decades spread the disinformation that any increase in population per se impedes economic development. The truth is that manpower is a great asset for economic development. Of course, the population must be educated and invested with professional skills.

A study by the Development Research Centre of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development covering eight decades (1900-1980) revealed that the per capita income in most developing countries rose faster than the increase in population. In the same period, the population of Latin American countries increased nearly seven-fold, while their GDP grew thirty-five times, thus multiplying their overall prosperity nearly five times.

The latest threat to humankind comes from too few new arrivals, a phenomenon which will soon lead to depopulation of many countries and regions. With the spread of contraceptives all over world, except Muslim countries, fertility levels have sharply declined by more than half since 1972 – from 6 children per woman in 1972 to 2.9 in 1990s. The United Nations Population Report 2002 showed that Europe’s fertility rates had fallen far below the replacement level of 2.1. Russia’s population is decreasing by 7000,000 every year and President Vladimir Putin considers it a ‘national crisis’. In the next 40 years the population of Germany could go down by one-fifth, that of Bulgaria’s by 38% and Romania’s by 27%.

Muslim countries are striking exceptions to the global trend of declining population growth. In Europe, Albania and Kosovo are growing fast, and in Asia so are Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides growth in population, there have been huge mass migrations of Muslims from country to country and continent to continent in search of livelihood and better living conditions. Apart from Europe, India has been witnessing massive illegal infiltration of Bangladeshi Muslims whose numbers, including their progeny, are now estimated at between three to five crore.

Across Europe, the increasing visibility of women wearing niqab or hijab, presence of bearded men with skull caps and ankle-high pyjamas, and growing number of mosques with lofty minarets, have made average European Christians feel insecure.

Bruce Bawer, in his book, ‘While Europe Slept’ (2006), warned that buoyed by their galloping population Muslims across Sweden were flaunting T-shirts announcing “2030 – then we take over”. He said Muslims across Europe were confidently planning to make Europe part of their caliphate. Europe is already being referred to as Eurabia by many futurologists and strategic analysts.

Phillip Longman, an expert in demography and author of The Empty Cradle, proclaimed that “Birth rates, not weapons or tech, spell power”. In countries where populations age, economies falter and the world influence of the affected country or community diminishes.

An important aspect of demographic change in Europe is that many of the largest cities, mostly capitals, have come to acquire a disproportionately larger presence of Muslims. Daniel Pipes observed that Sweden’s Stockholm and Malmo may soon be the first Western European cities having a Muslim majority, soon to be followed by Moscow in Russia. Pipes says the fate of European civilisation in coming years will depend upon three unknowns: (i) whether radical Islamism will prevail, (ii) whether integration will prevail, or (iii) if a nationalistic turn in Europe will at some point opt to deport the immigrants. These are loaded questions and at this stage it is difficult to arrive at any conclusion.

Though the United States does not appear to have any comparable concentration of Muslims in any city, there is a sizeable Muslim presence in two towns, Dearborn and Michigan. The birth rate of Christians in USA is certainly lower than that of the Muslims, and has been causing concern to American society.

So overpowering is the dominance of Muslims across the UK that the British government has decided to allow the Sharia to regulate the lives of British Muslims; 85 Sharia courts function in Britain. Even though Muslims constitute less than 5 percent of UK population, the Archbishop of Canterbury agreed that “Sharia is unavoidable”. That emboldened the chief of London’s Sharia Court to declare, “if Sharia is implemented then you can turn this country into a heaven of peace… Once a thief’s hand is cut off, nobody is going to steal. Once an adulterer is stoned, nobody is going to commit this crime at all.”

Sometime ago, the well-known Dutch Member of Parliament, Geert Wilders, produced a controversial documentary ‘Fitna’ which juxtaposes passages from Surahs (chapters) of the Quran with 11 September 2001, jihadi attacks and beheadings, including shootings and speeches by Muslim clerics advocating violence against all non-Muslims; this led to his prosecution for racism.

At a speech at Four Seasons in New York, highlighting the plight of Christian Europe, he said that future generations will ask two questions. First, they will ask the Americans, “Who lost Europe?” Second, they will ask Dutch leaders of the next generation, “What were our fathers doing?” Wilders felt that in the coming decades no one would be able to answer either question.
Mark Steyn, a Canadian strategic analyst, asserts that the Eurabian civil war has already started with young rioters asserting a Muslim identity burning cars and firing at police in the suburbs of Paris in 2006, and subsequently off and on in several European cities. He feels it is easier to be optimistic about the future of Iraq and Pakistan than the future of Holland and Denmark. Fear of Muslim dominance has spread as far as Norway where the population of Muslims grew 75 times in just 23 years, from 1006 in 1980 to 75,761 in 2003.

In Norway, in 1974, some immigrants from Pakistan established an Islamic Cultural Centre. Later, it was found that the Centre was a direct subsidiary of a notorious religio-political movement known as Jamat-e-Islami, founded by Islamist ideologue Abu Ala Maududi (1903-1979), the inspiration behind total Islamisation of Pakistan by General Zia-ul-Haq. The ICC of Oslo was found to be associated with Pakistani Islamist Qazi Hussain Ahmed.

Norway, too, suffers from low birth rate of the non-Muslim population. Oslo and Akshersus are likely to soon become Muslim dominated areas.

France is the soft underbelly of Europe because it has the largest Muslim population in Europe. The ground reality is complex as France has more than 700 No-Go areas where the police find it difficult to enforce law because of persistent resistance by mobsters. After Switzerland in January 2010 banned more minarets, France decided to adopt a number of measures to protect its civilisational identity.

After a ban on wearing veils in public places, it decided to take proactive measures to reaffirm its secular tradition and curb the influence of radical Islam. President Nicholas Sarkozy declared the ‘burqa’ was unacceptable because it violated civilisational values cherished by France. Some innovative measures were initiated to insulate France from the influence of radical Islam, including singing national anthem with gusto and teaching the history of France to children and adults. Immigration Minister Eric Besson called for a national debate on the importance of national identity: “What does it mean to be French?” He announced that a decision had been taken to send back to Kabul all illegal Afghan immigrants by chartered flights. More than 21,000 were deported last year; the ultimate target is to deport 27,000.

Rising conflicts

There are now increased religion-based conflicts in West Asia, the Balkans, western Europe, Chechnya in Russia, erstwhile Soviet satellites like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Ingushetia, Dagestan and even Azerbaijan. In Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia, southern Thailand and India have been badly infected with the virus of secessionist campaigns.

In 1961, Kosovo had 67 percent Muslims (mostly immigrants from Albania), while Orthodox Serbs constituted 24 percent of the population. Due to conspicuously higher Albanian birth rates, by 1991 the Muslims rose to 90 percent, while the Serbs declined to a meagre 10 percent. Ultimately, Kosovo was lost to the Serbs.

Serbs had a civilisational attachment to Kosovo which was deemed as their holy land like Jerusalem, being the site of the famous battle between Serbs warriors and invading Ottoman Turks in June 1389, which the Serbs lost. They suffered the ignominy of servitude for nearly five centuries.

Another example of how demography can change the destiny of a civilization is Bosnia-Herzegovina, which went through a demographic transformation in three decades. In 1961, Serbs constituted nearly 43 percent of Bosnia’s population; Muslims were 26 percent, while Croats (another sect of Orthodox Christians) were 22 percent. By 1991, the percentage of Serbs dropped to 31%, Muslims rose to 43%, and the percentage of Croats fell from 22 to 17%. Now Bosnia-Herzegovina is a Muslim dominated country.

These demographic changes in the Balkans have caused multiple fault-line conflicts, enormous bloodbath and large scale uprooting of populations. The International Centre of Migration Policy Development has estimated that approximately 15 percent of the population of the Balkans – 75 million – had to move from their habitats in the 1980s due to force of demographic changes and the resultant politico-religious upheavals. – Vijayvaani, 30 March 2012

3 – Agony of Hindu Civilisation

India faces a major demographic upheaval. The sharply rising Muslim numbers, both in absolute and percentage terms, and a corresponding decline in the population of Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists has the potential to escalate fault-line conflicts and create a Lebanon-like situation. Data from the last six censuses held since 1951 suggests that in percentage terms there has been a relentless increase in the population of only one community, the Muslims; all other communities are in a declining mode. Since 1981, Muslim population growth has been in a fast forward mode, growing at almost 45% higher rate than Hindus and Christians. In terms of percentage, Sikh population has recorded the steepest decline since independence.

Census 2001 put the decadal growth rate of Muslims at around 36%, while Hindu growth rate declined from 23% to 20%. On the eve of the Maharashtra Assembly elections, an unseemly political controversy was manufactured by the government on the ground that since no census had taken place in J&K in 1991, the conclusions drawn in terms of Census 2001 data were faulty. This led to a very clumsy fudging of Census 2001, by omitting from the census 3.67 crore people living in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, States having high Muslim population.

In 1981, no census could be held in Assam due to disturbed conditions, but that did not result in any political ruckus, nor was fudging of census data done at that time because no elections were due then. The most extraordinary aspect of this fudging of the population profile was the deletion with retrospective effect of population data of these two sensitive states from every Census held since 1961 – something never done before in any democratic country.

In a lucid article, professional demographers, late P.N. Mari Bhat and A.J. Francis Zavier, wrote that “the fertility of Muslims, which was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25 to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu rate”. This means the Muslim population is now growing at a rate nearly 45% higher than that of Hindus.

The authors added that the assertion in a section of English media that Census 2001 had revealed a higher reduction in the growth rate of Muslims than Hindus was incorrect. The decline in Hindu growth rate was higher at 12.2% as against 10.3% decline in Muslim growth. Fast growth of Muslim population, especially in non-Muslim countries, is a global phenomenon, they averred.

There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim fertility was due to poverty or illiteracy. Since 36% Muslims live in urban areas, as against only 26% Hindus, and as Muslims have a higher life expectancy at birth than Hindus, logically their fertility should have been lower than Hindus. But Muslim fertility continues to be higher despite their greater urbanization and lower incidence of infant and child mortality. Within 7-8 years, the gap between the longevity of Hindus and Muslims has widened to 3 years, i.e., 68 years for Muslims as against only 65 years for Hindus [National Family Health Survey of 2005-2006].

Acceptance of family planning by Muslims is lower at least by 25 percent than Hindus and other Indic communities. Late Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier highlighted the fact that in non-Muslim countries there is a general trend towards higher growth rate of Muslim populations.

According to the National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99, in Kerala where the literacy level of the two communities was almost equal (and due to large remittances from Gulf countries Muslims are economically better off than Hindus), the growth rate of Muslims remained much higher than Hindus by almost 45 percent. Analysis of Census 2001 shows that on an average every Muslim woman is giving birth to at least one more child than her Hindu counterpart.

Indians must understand the mind-boggling import of Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the religion-wise breakup of children in the 0-6 year age group. It shows that the percentage of 0-6 year old Muslim cohorts (a term commonly used in demographic parlance) is 21% higher than Hindu cohorts. This gives Muslims an advantage of 7.6% over Hindus as and when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say roughly between 2012 and 2016.

This gives a vital clue to the demographic crisis likely to engulf India anytime after 2011 or latest by 2021. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in 2001) will become reproductively active between 2012 and 2016 and continue to reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21% higher cohort population and at least 25 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim population during the next few decades is likely to become even more fast-paced.

The Census 2001 Religion Data Report further reveals that among all religious groups, the Muslim population of 0-6 year cohorts was highest at 18.7%. The lowest percentage was seen among Jains (10.6%) and Sikhs (12.8%). In coming years, the percentage increase in the population of these two religious groups, important components of Indic civilization, will be slower than the growth recorded in Census 2001, and their share in the population will decline further, possibly at a faster pace.

In terms of percentage increase, the biggest quantum jump in Muslim population in coming decades will occur in Haryana where the ratio of Muslim cohorts is almost 60% higher than Hindu cohorts! Next in descending order registering fast Muslim growth will be Assam, West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Delhi, Nagaland and Bihar.

A further analysis of 0-6 year cohorts’ data reveals that out of 35 States and Union Territories listed in Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim cohorts was higher than Hindu cohorts in as many as 31 States and UTs. The percentage of 0-6 year Hindu cohorts was marginally higher than Muslims only in Sikkim and Madhya Pradesh and the UTs of Daman & Diu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. In coming decades, Muslim population will grow at a higher rate than that of Hindus in 31 States and Union Territories.

Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report is self-explanatory and vividly depicts the looming shadow of future demographic changes across India.

Trapped in a suicidal cult of political correctness, most Indian intellectuals refuse to understand the reasons which prompted former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to advise all British couples to opt for the 5 children norm. Incidentally, his wife Cherry Blair gave birth to their fourth child while her husband was Prime Minister. Indeed, in recent years many European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to couples who opt for more children. Peter Costello, Australia’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, urged every couple to have at least 3 children, preferably more – “one child for father, one for the mother and one for the country”.
Apprehensive of population growth in Indonesia, Peter Costello announced an incentive of 2000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004. Many keen observers of global population trends like Niall Ferguson, Bernard Lewis, Robert Costello, Bruce Bawer and Mark Steyn are alerting their countrymen to the threat posed by demographic changes to their civilisational values.

India has many bleeding heart liberals who will ask why this global panic? The answer is that in 1900, Muslims constituted only 12% of the world population; they grew to 18% in 1992-93 (when Huntington published his first thesis on clash of civilizations). Today Muslims constitute 24% of global population. Samuel Huntington pointed out that by 2025, they will constitute 30% of world population. [Source: Spangler, The Decline of the West].

According to some demographic estimates, Muslims might constitute 37% to 40% of world population by 2100 AD. In recent years the number of jihads worldwide has also multiplied; Thailand is the latest entrant to the growing list of jihadi conflict zones.

In India, the Hindu birth rate is fast approaching the European average. According to Census 2001, the decadal Total Fertility Rate of Hindus of Kolkata district (West Bengal) was barely 1.0%, much lower than the birth rates of Germany, Italy and Spain. In Kerala too the Hindu TFR at 1.64 is below the replacement level of 2.1in 2001.

Kerala has witnessed a massive increase in Muslim population from approx. 23,75,000 in 1951 to 78,64,000 in 2001. During the same period the population of Hindus grew from 83,48,000 to 1,79,2000, while that of Christians increased from 28,26,000 to 60,57,000. During the last five decades the Hindu percentage in Kerala’s population declined from 61.61 to 56.28, while that of Muslims rose from 17.53 to 24.70 percent. The percentage share of Christians declined from 20.86 in 1951 to 19.02 in 2001.

The Indian middle class and opinion makers must grasp the long-term consequences of the demographic crisis. In a different context, while analysing socio-economic aspects of Census 2001, demographer Ashish Bose estimated that in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30% of the population. A back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of Muslim growth rate in the last two decades shows that Muslims will attain majority status in all these 49 districts between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier.

According to a study published by the Centre for Policy Studies, around 2061, the total Muslim population of the sub-continent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, counted together) will exceed the total Hindu/ Sikh population. This could lead to a fierce struggle for supremacy in the sub-continent.

This is already visible in the chorus for more unmerited concessions for Muslims. The Sachar Committee admitted, perhaps unwittingly, that by 2101 Muslim population in India will be around 32 to 34 crores. It was 13.8 crores in 2001 and barely 3.77 crores in 1951.

In recent times, there have been strident demands by Muslim leaders for greater share in jobs and elected bodies. In 2006, Mohammad Azam Khan of the Samajwadi Party called for carving a Muslim Pradesh out of Western UP, instead of a Harit Pradesh advocated by the Rashtriya Lok Dal.

A similar demand to create four or five Muslim-dominated enclaves was voiced by Dr. Omar Khalidi in an interview published in The Times of India, New Delhi, June 2004. He later wrote in The Radiance, mouthpiece of Jamaat-e Islami. He was assiduously following the roadmap for another partition of India. Advocating the creation of Muslim-dominated enclaves in the Mewat region of Haryana, certain parts of UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, Dr. Khalidi demanded reservations for Muslims on the pattern of Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

The late Dr. Khalidi was in the forefront of the lobby seeking proportionate representation for Muslims in various services, especially in the defence services and para-military forces. He and G.M. Banatwala of the Muslim League are believed to have indirectly used the Sachar Committee as a medium to mount political pressure for seeking jobs for Muslims in proportion to their growing population in government departments, especially the defence and para-military forces, besides greater representation in Parliament and State legislatures.

Muslims are fully aware of their future empowerment through sharp growth in their numbers. Many have started pushing the claim to disproportionate political power in India. Sometime ago when Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi visited Aligarh Muslim University, a student asked him how soon he visualised a Muslim becoming Prime Minister of India. Obviously, the battle lines are being drawn for another politico-religious conflict in India.

In conclusion, it would be in order to recall late P.N. Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier’s analysis that the fertility of Muslims was about 10% higher than that of Hindus before independence and is now 25 to 30% higher than the Hindu rate. Hindus have lost considerable ground since 1947. Yet no Hindu political or spiritual leader has tried to rouse the millions of ill-informed Hindus about the looming threat of demographic decimation of their ancient faith and civilisational values.

The writing on the wall is clear. The Christians of Europe and Hindus of India have pushed themselves to the edge of suicide by failure to understand the dynamics of demography in this age of adult suffrage. Russian demographers describe the rampant recourse to abortion by their countrymen in quest of the small family norm as ‘do it yourself genocide’. – Vijayavaani, 31 March 2012

» The author is a retired Inspector General of Police, Arunachal Pradesh.


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